Exploring Predictors of Academic Success Among ESL Students in Online Learning Contexts

Abstract

This study explores the predictive roles of digital literacy, learner autonomy, and language proficiency in determining academic success among ESL students in online learning environments. Employing a quantitative, correlational research design, data were collected from 180 undergraduate students enrolled in online English courses across multiple campuses of a private university in Sindh, Pakistan. Standardized and adapted survey instruments measured the three predictor variables, while final course grades served as the indicator of academic performance. Data were analyzed using SPSS Version 27, incorporating reliability analysis, correlation coefficients, and multiple regression modeling. The regression results demonstrated that all three variables significantly contributed to academic outcomes (p < .001), with learner autonomy emerging as the strongest predictor (β = 0.334), followed by language proficiency (β = 0.278), and digital literacy (β = 0.228). The model accounted for 24.1% of the variance in final course grades (R² = .241), and correlation analysis supported the independence of predictors, suggesting minimal multicollinearity. These findings underscore the central role of learner autonomy in promoting academic success in online ESL contexts, while also affirming the importance of language competence and digital skills. The study offers practical implications for online pedagogy, advocating for the integration of self-regulated learning strategies, language development, and digital literacy training into ESL curricula. Limitations related to self-reported data, sample size, and contextual generalizability are acknowledged, and recommendations for future research include longitudinal and mixed-method studies to further explore these interrelated constructs.

Keywords: Digital Literacy, Learner Autonomy, Language Proficiency, ESL, Online Learning, Academic Success, Multiple Regression, Virtual Classrooms.