Strategic Illusions and Realpolitik: A Pre-9/11 History of U.S.–Pakistan Relations

Abstract

This study offers a comprehensive historical analysis of U.S.–Pakistan relations from Pakistan’s inception in 1947 up to the pivotal events of 9/11. It explores how Pakistan’s enduring security dilemma especially its rivalry with India and fragile military and economic foundations drove its strategic alignment with the United States. Anchored in Cold War containment logic, this asymmetric partnership evolved through shifting global power dynamics, ideological battles, and regional conflicts including the Kashmir dispute, multiple Indo-Pak wars, the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan, and the nuclear arms race in South Asia.

The analysis highlights how Pakistan’s geostrategic utility repeatedly brought it into the U.S. orbit, especially during the Cold War, but also how divergent objectives Pakistan’s India-centric security needs versus America’s global strategic calculus led to recurring cycles of cooperation and estrangement. Particular attention is paid to the post-Afghanistan War fallout in the 1990s, where shifting U.S. interests, rising concerns over nuclear proliferation, and Pakistan’s support for militant groups led to sanctions and growing mistrust. These frictions underscore the structural limitations and policy disconnects that laid the foundation for a fragile and transactional relationship in the post-9/11 era.

This study draws on extensive qualitative document analysis including declassified archives, official policy records, speeches, congressional reports, and academic literature complemented by expert insights from regional analysts. By synthesizing these sources, the research offers a nuanced and contextual understanding of the U.S.–Pakistan relationship in the decades before the War on Terror.